ANALYSIS OF DEMAND BASED FORECASTING METHODS EMPLOYED IN KERIO VALLEY DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY, KENYA

Author's Name: Jepchirchir Kibet Lorna
Subject Area: Social Science and Humanities
Subject Business Management
Section Research Paper

Keyword:

Conjoint Analysis, Delphi Method, Neural network, Kenya


Abstract

Choosing the best forecasting method for any particular situation is not a simple task, and sometimes more than one method may be appropriate. The main objective of this study was to determine the demand based forecasting methods employed at Kerio Valley development Authority. The study employed a case study research design. The target population was 70 respondents. The sampling techniques used were stratified random sampling, purposive sampling and simple random sampling. The data collection instruments were questionnaires and interview schedules. Validity of the research instrument was tested using expert opinion and piloting approach while test-retest method for reliability. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistics. SPSS version 20.0 aided in Analysis. The results were that prediction market method, Delphi Method, Game Theory, Conjoint Analysis and Extrapolation Method had been employed in the organization. The study concluded that qualitative and quantitative methods are the two main approaches to demand forecasting. The importance of demand forecasting manifests itself in the purchasing function and can strongly influence a company’s competitive advantage. The study recommends that the Delphi method should be used as a tool to implement multi stakeholder approaches for participative policy making in the organization. Conjoint Analysis should be used by business entities in market research to determine how people value different features that make up an individual product or service.

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