ROBUST STATISTICAL PROCEDURE TO DETERMINE SUITABLE SCENARIO OF SOME CMIP5 MODELS FOR FOUR LOCATIONS IN EGYPT

Author's Name: Tarek Sayad, Samiha Ouda, Mostafa Morsy & Fathy El Hussieny
Subject Area: Science and Engineering
Subject Other
Section Research Paper

Keyword:

Some of CMIP5 models; RCPs scenarios; Goodness of fit parameters.


Abstract

The objectives of this research were (i) to compare between measured weather data and projected data (2006-2014) from four global climate models (BCC-CSM1-1, CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2G and MIROC5), with four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) developed for four Egyptian governorates (Kafr El-Sheikh, El-Gharbia, El-Minya and Sohag); (ii) to determine the suitable RCPs climate change scenarios at each governorate. Weather data was compared to projected data by the selected scenarios of the selected models. Goodness of fit measurements for some statistical parameters between measured and projected data were calculated. The results indicated that the RCP6.0 developed by CCSM4 model and RCP8.5 developed by BCC-CSM1-1 and MIROC5 models were acceptable for Kafr El-Sheikh governorate. Whereas, the suitable scenarios for El-Gharbia governorate was RCP6.0 developed by CCSM4 model and RCP8.5 developed by MIROC5 model. Nevertheless, in El-Minia governorate, the highest agreement between measured and projected values was found for RCP8.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios developed by CCSM4 model. With respect to Sohage, the most suitable scenario was RCP6.0 which is developed by CCSM4 model. Consequently, it is recommended to prefer using the RCP6.0 scenario developed by CCSM4 model as a suitable scenario for all selected governorates. The statistical procedure used in this paper can be used by other researchers around the world, especially in developing countries to reduce uncertainty in simulation of climate change risks on agriculture and water resources.

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