Author's Name:	Tarek A. Sayad, Alaa M. Ali & Abdallah M. Kamel
Subject Area:	Science and Engineering
Subject	Other
Section	Research Paper

Climate change, Statistical down scaling, RCP scenarios, Maximum and minimum temperature.

The purpose of this study is therefore, to apply a statistical downscaling method and assess its strength in reproducing current climate for Alexandria maximum and minimum temperature at north coast of Egypt.Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) is used to describe the linkage between climate simulations given by a global circulation model, GCM, (CanESM2) and the local temperature data. Data for maximum and minimum daily-temperature records for Alexandria station in Egypt were considered duringthe period of 30 years (1980-2009). Analysis results have demonstrated that the minimum and maximum temperatures tend to increase during the first 30 years (1980-2009). The significant NCEP reanalysis data such have been used to develop the SDSMs for the linkage between the GCM outputs and the local temperatures. They have been then applied to construct the different RCP scenarios of the maximum and minimum temperatures until year 2100. Results have indicated that RCP 4.5 is the best one with increasing in both Tmax and Tmin based on baseline period (1980-2009) except in spring season the most periods are under estimation in all scenarios. Maximum temperature of RCP 4.5 stabilization scenario will increase by 0.88° C in the 2011-2040, 1.62° C in 2041-2070 and 1.98° C by the end of the century. Also RCP 4.5 minimum temperature scenario will increase by 1.52°C in the 2011-2040, 2.34°C in 2041-2070 and 2.75°C by the end of the century.